Tesla: Where do we stand, or where do we want to go? An investor’s perspective on Tesla’s vision for the next generation of driverless vehicles

The new robotaxi will be revealed at Warner Bros. movie studios in Burbank, California, where Tesla has reportedly been collecting fresh mapping data in the lead-up to the event. Tesla has a lot of ground to cover to prove it can launch a driverless vehicle that can compete with robotaxi rivals like Waymo and Cruise. And Elon Musk is expected to outline his vision for the Tesla Network, in which Tesla owners can add their autonomous vehicles to a robotaxi fleet when they’re not using them.

A futuristic technology that a billionaire says will transform the world is celebrated, mocked and feared, while he takes to the stage to unveil it.

Tesla makes money selling electric vehicles — in fact, its profit margins on its cars, which are consistently in the double digits, are enviable for an automaker. Musk is interested in the software industry’s profit margins.

Analyst George Gianarikas of Canaccord Genuity Group notes that Musk’s approach requires billions of dollars of upfront investment in AI, but much cheaper hardware on vehicles. It is not cheap right now but would pay off if there were millions of robotaxis on the road.

The value of a fully electric fleet is a mystery to the mind. He talked to investors in the year 2021. “That will be one of the most valuable things that’s ever done in the history of civilization.”

While there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical about the idea of a chauffeured vehicle, there is a track record of proving skeptics wrong.

Cruise put human safety drivers back behind the wheel after a crash last year, even though companies like Waymo and GM have already sent driverless taxis onto the streets. The systems often have someone on call to assist remotely if a car gets stuck. According to data provided to the state of California by the company, it drove over one million miles of fully-equipped self-driving vehicles last year, with a total of 14 disengages or times the software required manual control.

Those companies haven’t made money yet with robotaxis. The auto market research giant J.D. Power recently surveyed people who have ridden in robotaxis and found that while passengers generally liked the experience, they don’t find the taxis practical. Until they’re cheaper and cover more ground, the pollsters concluded, “the service will remain a novelty transportation method.”

Musk decided to build a system based only on relatively cheap cameras, with no other inputs; other companies also use radar and other pricey high-tech sensors. Other companies also use human-designed rules for their artificial intelligence systems, but Musk is the only one who embraces end-to-end learning.

Other companies think that this approach is dangerous. Aurora took the unusual step of preemptively emailing reporters ahead of Tesla’s event this week to share bullet points about exactly what they object to. Making sure a system learns good driving behaviors and that it has a system of checks and balances is one of those concerns.

The Aurora email said that Anderson worked for Tesla where he helped launch the first partial- automation system. A formerTesla executive is joining the team of Waymo.

Self-Driving: How Do You Know the Regulatory Consequences of Hard Codes? A Case Study of Cruise, Uber, and Other Robotics

The United States still has no federal laws governing self-driving, so a patchwork of state and city regulators set the boundaries of what companies can and cannot do.

Musk has always acknowledged that achieving full self-driving is not just a matter of technological innovation; if regulators aren’t convinced a robotaxi fleet is safe, it isn’t going anywhere.

That has implications for the physical design of vehicles. The Cruise company abandoned plans for a futuristic vehicle with a steering wheel that was meant to be used for taxi service because of the risk of being sued by regulators.

And governmental concerns could also affect software. Regulators who study the coding of a system built by deep learning may not like what they find.

“You can imagine a scenario where [regulators] just kind of have this moment, like ‘What? You don’t … have any hard-coded software rules?” He says so. “‘How do you control it?’”

The Robot Axion: Expected Results from Musk and Optimus at the e+ e- Annihilation

The event was sent out with an invite that featured a picture of a robot and the quote “We, Robot.” It could also indicate that we’ll get an update on the company’s humanoid Optimus bot. We will have to watch the livestream to find out, as the company only invited a limited number of people.

A black and white robot with a glass face can walk in a way that is stilted. Tesla has shared videos of it sorting objects, standing on one leg and dancing.

Dan Ives, an analyst and a long-time Tesla bull, will be in attendance on Thursday night. He’s less interested in androids and more in whether Musk can demonstrate a fully autonomous vehicle that actually works.

Musk decided to push the reveal of therobotaxi to October 10th to allow for more time to work on the prototype. There could be some surprises up the company’s sleeve. Could a cheaper Tesla be coming? Maybe there’s time being set aside to reveal the rumored “Juniper” Model Y? Perhaps a self-driving van?

Initial reports claimed that a new and cheaper version ofTesla was going to be scrapped, but Musk has reassured shareholders that’s not the case. A $25,000Tesla could change the market by fulfilling the demand for cheaper electric cars and competing with lower-cost Chinese EV.

But the robotaxi will be the star of the show. While it will be interesting to hear Musk’s vision for the future, its success will definitely make it more interesting.