Will Trump’s tariffs cover the trade deficit? An afterthought on the impact of his new tariffs on the U.S. economy
But according to Trump’s math, the tariffs are supposed to raise prices. Because those higher prices are the driving force that will close the trade deficit.
This is contrary to Trump’s previous public statements, where he has variously denied that tariffs would raise prices or has said that he “couldn’t care less.”
That doesn’t mean that all of Trump’s calculations arrive at the right answer. For one, these are very rough, back-of-the-envelope calculations. Every trading partner, every good and every industry is treated the same by this formula. Bananas, oil, clothing, computers or cars — it doesn’t matter what a country sends to the U.S.
Behind these Greek letters there’s a blunt but understandable approach. The equation is attempting to answer the question of how much tariffs should be set to make Americans buy more foreign products and reduce the trade deficit. This math says, the more of a trade deficit the U.S. has with another country, the higher that tariffs should be on that country’s products.
When President Trump announced his latest tariffs on Wednesday, he also ignited an economic mystery. Did those numbers come from around the world?
That isn’t true. These are not reciprocal tariffs. They don’t match the tariffs in other countries. The truth behind where the tariffs came from is more interesting.
So, will Trump’s new tariffs actually close the trade deficit? Maybe, maybe not. But finally, at least, the administration has shown its work. They thought the tariffs were intended to raise prices and close the trade deficit.
Aside from that, Trump’s tariff math also ignores the broader economic consequences of these sweeping new tariffs. They will have an effect on the overall American economy. They will influence exchange rates. And they will likely provoke retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
Is There a Path to a Meaningful US Smartphone Manufacturing Hub? A Review on the Role of High-Energy U.S. Tariffs
The reviewer has 10 years of experience writing about consumer tech. She has a special interest in mobile photography and telecom. Previously, she worked at DPReview.
It is not going to happen anytime soon if the goal is to get Apple to start making iPhones in the US. The company would face some massive challenges doing so.
I don’t think there’s a path to a meaningful US smartphones production hub. Apple does some manufacturing in the US, but is limited to small-scale production. The iPhone and its network of specialized component suppliers are a different beast. The costs would be much higher than the impact of tariffs, even if Apple established supply chains, a workforce, and manufacturing facilities in the US. These tariffs are being carried out through an executive order rather than Congress, so a new incoming president could change them in four years.
And yet there’s still plenty of uncertainty around these tariffs, including whether they might get pushed back yet again. Like I said, it’s complicated.